Release of the Roadmap [4-30-2003]

The long-awaited Roadmap has been released, a comprehensive document that attempts to show the way to a permanent, lasting peace between Israel, the Palestinian Arabs, and all the other Middle East countries.  Here is the full text:

"A Performance-Based Roadmap to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict"
[ http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2003/20062.htm ]

Press Statement
Office of the Spokesman
Washington, DC
April 30, 2003

A Performance-Based Roadmap to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The following is a performance-based and goal-driven roadmap, with clear phases, timelines, target dates, and benchmarks aiming at progress through reciprocal steps by the two parties in the political, security, economic, humanitarian, and institution-building fields, under the auspices of the Quartet [the United States, European Union, United Nations, and Russia]. The destination is a final and comprehensive settlement of the Israel-Palestinian conflict by 2005, as presented in President Bush’s speech of 24 June, and welcomed by the EU, Russia and the UN in the 16 July and 17 September Quartet Ministerial statements.

A two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will only be achieved through an end to violence and terrorism, when the Palestinian people have a leadership acting decisively against terror and willing and able to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty, and through Israel’s readiness to do what is necessary for a democratic Palestinian state to be established, and a clear, unambiguous acceptance by both parties of the goal of a negotiated settlement as described below. The Quartet will assist and facilitate implementation of the plan, starting in Phase I, including direct discussions between the parties as required. The plan establishes a realistic timeline for implementation. However, as a performance-based plan, progress will require and depend upon the good faith efforts of the parties, and their compliance with each of the obligations outlined below. Should the parties perform their obligations rapidly, progress within and through the phases may come sooner than indicated in the plan. Non-compliance with obligations will impede progress.

A settlement, negotiated between the parties, will result in the emergence of an independent, democratic, and viable Palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbors. The settlement will resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict, and end the occupation that began in 1967, based on the foundations of the Madrid Conference, the principle of land for peace, UNSCRs 242, 338 and 1397, agreements previously reached by the parties, and the initiative of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah – endorsed by the Beirut Arab League Summit – calling for acceptance of Israel as a neighbor living in peace and security, in the context of a comprehensive settlement. This initiative is a vital element of international efforts to promote a comprehensive peace on all tracks, including the Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli tracks.

The Quartet will meet regularly at senior levels to evaluate the parties' performance on implementation of the plan. In each phase, the parties are expected to perform their obligations in parallel, unless otherwise indicated.

Phase I: Ending Terror And Violence, Normalizing Palestinian Life, and Building Palestinian Institutions -- Present to May 2003
In Phase I, the Palestinians immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of violence according to the steps outlined below; such action should be accompanied by supportive measures undertaken by Israel. Palestinians and Israelis resume security cooperation based on the Tenet work plan to end violence, terrorism, and incitement through restructured and effective Palestinian security services. Palestinians undertake comprehensive political reform in preparation for statehood, including drafting a Palestinian constitution, and free, fair and open elections upon the basis of those measures. Israel takes all necessary steps to help normalize Palestinian life. Israel withdraws from Palestinian areas occupied from September 28, 2000 and the two sides restore the status quo that existed at that time, as security performance and cooperation progress. Israel also freezes all settlement activity, consistent with the Mitchell report.

At the outset of Phase I:

• Palestinian leadership issues unequivocal statement reiterating Israel’s right to exist in peace and security and calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire to end armed activity and all acts of violence against Israelis anywhere. All official Palestinian institutions end incitement against Israel.
• Israeli leadership issues unequivocal statement affirming its commitment to the two-state vision of an independent, viable, sovereign Palestinian state living in peace and security alongside Israel, as expressed by President Bush, and calling for an immediate end to violence against Palestinians everywhere. All official Israeli institutions end incitement against Palestinians.

Security

• Palestinians declare an unequivocal end to violence and terrorism and undertake visible efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt, and restrain individuals and groups conducting and planning violent attacks on Israelis anywhere.
• Rebuilt and refocused Palestinian Authority security apparatus begins sustained, targeted, and effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in terror and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and infrastructure. This includes commencing confiscation of illegal weapons and consolidation of security authority, free of association with terror and corruption.
• GOI takes no actions undermining trust, including deportations, attacks on civilians; confiscation and/or demolition of Palestinian homes and property, as a punitive measure or to facilitate Israeli construction; destruction of Palestinian institutions and infrastructure; and other measures specified in the Tenet work plan.
• Relying on existing mechanisms and on-the-ground resources, Quartet representatives begin informal monitoring and consult with the parties on establishment of a formal monitoring mechanism and its implementation.
• Implementation, as previously agreed, of U.S. rebuilding, training and resumed security cooperation plan in collaboration with outside oversight board (U.S.–Egypt–Jordan). Quartet support for efforts to achieve a lasting, comprehensive cease-fire.
  • All Palestinian security organizations are consolidated into three services reporting to an empowered Interior Minister.
  • Restructured/retrained Palestinian security forces and IDF counterparts progressively resume security cooperation and other undertakings in implementation of the Tenet work plan, including regular senior-level meetings, with the participation of U.S. security officials.
• Arab states cut off public and private funding and all other forms of support for groups supporting and engaging in violence and terror.
• All donors providing budgetary support for the Palestinians channel these funds through the Palestinian Ministry of Finance's Single Treasury Account.
• As comprehensive security performance moves forward, IDF withdraws progressively from areas occupied since September 28, 2000 and the two sides restore the status quo that existed prior to September 28, 2000. Palestinian security forces redeploy to areas vacated by IDF.

Palestinian Institution-Building

• Immediate action on credible process to produce draft constitution for Palestinian statehood. As rapidly as possible, constitutional committee circulates draft Palestinian constitution, based on strong parliamentary democracy and cabinet with empowered prime minister, for public comment/debate. Constitutional committee proposes draft document for submission after elections for approval by appropriate Palestinian institutions.
• Appointment of interim prime minister or cabinet with empowered executive authority/decision-making body.
• GOI fully facilitates travel of Palestinian officials for PLC and Cabinet sessions, internationally supervised security retraining, electoral and other reform activity, and other supportive measures related to the reform efforts.
• Continued appointment of Palestinian ministers empowered to undertake fundamental reform. Completion of further steps to achieve genuine separation of powers, including any necessary Palestinian legal reforms for this purpose.
• Establishment of independent Palestinian election commission. PLC reviews and revises election law.
• Palestinian performance on judicial, administrative, and economic benchmarks, as established by the International Task Force on Palestinian Reform.
• As early as possible, and based upon the above measures and in the context of open debate and transparent candidate selection/electoral campaign based on a free, multi-party process, Palestinians hold free, open, and fair elections.
• GOI facilitates Task Force election assistance, registration of voters, movement of candidates and voting officials. Support for NGOs involved in the election process.
• GOI reopens Palestinian Chamber of Commerce and other closed Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem based on a commitment that these institutions operate strictly in accordance with prior agreements between the parties.

Humanitarian Response

• Israel takes measures to improve the humanitarian situation. Israel and Palestinians implement in full all recommendations of the Bertini report to improve humanitarian conditions, lifting curfews and easing restrictions on movement of persons and goods, and allowing full, safe, and unfettered access of international and humanitarian personnel.
• AHLC reviews the humanitarian situation and prospects for economic development in the West Bank and Gaza and launches a major donor assistance effort, including to the reform effort.
• GOI and PA continue revenue clearance process and transfer of funds, including arrears, in accordance with agreed, transparent monitoring mechanism.

Civil Society

• Continued donor support, including increased funding through PVOs/NGOs, for people to people programs, private sector development and civil society initiatives.

Settlements

• GOI immediately dismantles settlement outposts erected since March 2001.
• Consistent with the Mitchell Report, GOI freezes all settlement activity (including natural growth of settlements).

Phase II: Transition -- June 2003-December 2003
In the second phase, efforts are focused on the option of creating an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty, based on the new constitution, as a way station to a permanent status settlement. As has been noted, this goal can be achieved when the Palestinian people have a leadership acting decisively against terror, willing and able to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty. With such a leadership, reformed civil institutions and security structures, the Palestinians will have the active support of the Quartet and the broader international community in establishing an independent, viable, state.

Progress into Phase II will be based upon the consensus judgment of the Quartet of whether conditions are appropriate to proceed, taking into account performance of both parties. Furthering and sustaining efforts to normalize Palestinian lives and build Palestinian institutions, Phase II starts after Palestinian elections and ends with possible creation of an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders in 2003. Its primary goals are continued comprehensive security performance and effective security cooperation, continued normalization of Palestinian life and institution-building, further building on and sustaining of the goals outlined in Phase I, ratification of a democratic Palestinian constitution, formal establishment of office of prime minister, consolidation of political reform, and the creation of a Palestinian state with provisional borders.

• International Conference: Convened by the Quartet, in consultation with the parties, immediately after the successful conclusion of Palestinian elections, to support Palestinian economic recovery and launch a process, leading to establishment of an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders.
  • Such a meeting would be inclusive, based on the goal of a comprehensive Middle East peace (including between Israel and Syria, and Israel and Lebanon), and based on the principles described in the preamble to this document.
  • Arab states restore pre-intifada links to Israel (trade offices, etc.).
  • Revival of multilateral engagement on issues including regional water resources, environment, economic development, refugees, and arms control issues.
• New constitution for democratic, independent Palestinian state is finalized and approved by appropriate Palestinian institutions. Further elections, if required, should follow approval of the new constitution.
• Empowered reform cabinet with office of prime minister formally established, consistent with draft constitution.
• Continued comprehensive security performance, including effective security cooperation on the bases laid out in Phase I.
• Creation of an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders through a process of Israeli-Palestinian engagement, launched by the international conference. As part of this process, implementation of prior agreements, to enhance maximum territorial contiguity, including further action on settlements in conjunction with establishment of a Palestinian state with provisional borders.
• Enhanced international role in monitoring transition, with the active, sustained, and operational support of the Quartet.
• Quartet members promote international recognition of Palestinian state, including possible UN membership.

Phase III: Permanent Status Agreement and End of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict -- 2004 – 2005
Progress into Phase III, based on consensus judgment of Quartet, and taking into account actions of both parties and Quartet monitoring. Phase III objectives are consolidation of reform and stabilization of Palestinian institutions, sustained, effective Palestinian security performance, and Israeli-Palestinian negotiations aimed at a permanent status agreement in 2005.

• Second International Conference: Convened by Quartet, in consultation with the parties, at beginning of 2004 to endorse agreement reached on an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders and formally to launch a process with the active, sustained, and operational support of the Quartet, leading to a final, permanent status resolution in 2005, including on borders, Jerusalem, refugees, settlements; and, to support progress toward a comprehensive Middle East settlement between Israel and Lebanon and Israel and Syria, to be achieved as soon as possible.
• Continued comprehensive, effective progress on the reform agenda laid out by the Task Force in preparation for final status agreement.
• Continued sustained and effective security performance, and sustained, effective security cooperation on the bases laid out in Phase I.
• International efforts to facilitate reform and stabilize Palestinian institutions and the Palestinian economy, in preparation for final status agreement.
• Parties reach final and comprehensive permanent status agreement that ends the Israel-Palestinian conflict in 2005, through a settlement negotiated between the parties based on UNSCR 242, 338, and 1397, that ends the occupation that began in 1967, and includes an agreed, just, fair, and realistic solution to the refugee issue, and a negotiated resolution on the status of Jerusalem that takes into account the political and religious concerns of both sides, and protects the religious interests of Jews, Christians, and Muslims worldwide, and fulfills the vision of two states, Israel and sovereign, independent, democratic and viable Palestine, living side-by-side in peace and security.
• Arab state acceptance of full normal relations with Israel and security for all the states of the region in the context of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.

The first question about this document: Is it "fair and balanced"?

From my pro-Israel position, there are come troubling signs. For example, the document refers in several places to "the occupation that began in 1967" in spite of the loaded nature of the word "occupation" and all it implies. It also refers repeatedly to a "two state solution" forgetting that the Palestinian Arabs already have the state of Jordan, made up of 3/4 of the original Palestine Mandate. And it calls for immediate dismantling of all settlements "erected since March 2001" as well as demanding that Israel freeze "all settlement activity (including natural growth of settlements)" thereby endorsing the general Arab policy that their lands should be Judenrein.

On the other hand, all steps by Israel in the Roadmap are conditioned by demonstrated progress by the Palestinian Arabs in not only renouncing terror but also "visible efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt, and restrain individuals and groups conducting and planning violent attacks on Israelis anywhere." Further security actions are required to show "sustained, targeted, and effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in terror and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and infrastructure." This includes "commencing confiscation of illegal weapons and consolidation of security authority, free of association with terror and corruption." Unless the Palestinian Arabs actually do these things, Israel is not expected to withdraw from the territories or take other steps of the Roadmap.

There is much more detail intended to build confidence and effect a transition of Palestinian society from a tribal band organized for terrorism to a modern, democratic society dedicated to peaceful co-existence with Israel. In this sense, the document is fair and balanced.

But the biggest issue may be written between the lines. At each step, progress will be determined by "the consensus judgment of the Quartet." Specifically, "The Quartet will meet regularly at senior levels to evaluate the parties' performance on implementation of the plan. In each phase, the parties are expected to perform their obligations in parallel, unless otherwise indicated." In other words, this international group with known antipathy to Israel will be the judge of progress. What if Israel thinks Palestinian Arab progress on security is not adequate for Israel to withdraw? It's up to the Quartet to decide. This could be a huge problem for Israel given the miserable history of the international community toward Israel, their total lack of empathy with Israel's situation, and their willingness to forgive anything the Palestinian Arabs do.

The Roadmap is not an event, it is a process. Only time will tell how this will all work out. We can hope that it will lead to a reasonable settlement with permanent peace that would be in everyone's interest. But it could just as well lead to an armed, terrorist nation perched on Israel's shrunken borders. Israel must be extremely vigilant and careful to prevent the latter in circumstances that will almost certainly work against Israel's ability to do so.

JIA's Palestine Facts website now has a page that will follow these developments:

What was the 2003 'Road Map' for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs?
[ http://palestinefacts.org/pf_1991to_now_roadmap.php ]

FYI,
Chuck Chriss
President, JIA


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What was the 2003 'Road Map' for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs?

The so called Road Map is a performance-based plan with unambiguous milestones and definitions, intended to lead to a final and comprehensive settlement of the Israel-Palestinian Arab conflict by 2005. It follows from the statement made on June 24, 2002 by U.S. President George Bush, a new United States policy formulation for the Middle East. The Quartet (the United States, European Union, Russia and the UN) will supervise and support the plan. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is firmly on board.

The first steps in the plan call for significant reforms in the Palestinian Authority, up to now an entity unable or unwilling to control terrorism aimed at Israel. President Bush in his policy statement set forth a long list of very specific demands and reforms that would be required of the PA to show that they were capable of and willing to eliminate their former dependence on violence as the primary instrument of their policy. Bush correctly saw that no peace discussion with Israel had any meaning so long as the other side of the table was occupied by a terrorist group trying to elevate themselves into a state.

Early versions of the Road Map were criticized by both sides, but both sides were also interested in the potential it offers. In March 2003, Yasser Arafat responded to Quartet demands for progress by appointing Mahmoud Abbas, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mazen, to be the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority. There are problems with the appointment -- Abbas has a less-than-pristine history (including involvement in the 1972 Munich massacre of Israeli athletes} and his powers are limited by Arafat -- but he was accepted by the Quartet and Israel. The Road Map itself was formally announced only after Abbas set up a new cabinet, a process complicated by Arafat's resistance to a truly reform-minded group of ministers with real power. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon indicated willingness to engage in the process, with reservations (reported to be 15 amendments), and even hinted some flexibility on the matter of settlements. His comments generated a firestorm in Israel among those who do not trust the Palestinian Arabs, those who consider the Oslo "peace process" a costly disaster for Israel.

On April 30, 2003 the Road Map was formally released. U.S. ambassador to Israel, Daniel Kurtzer, presented the plan to Prime Minister Sharon at his Jerusalem home. It was presented a little later to Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah by Terje Larsen, the United Nations envoy to the Middle East. The same evening, a homicide bomber struck in Tel Aviv killing three and injuring about 50 at a busy seaside pub. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, linked to Arafat, claimed responsibility for the killings while Hamas issued a statement condemning the Road Map.

Fundamental issues such as the "right of return" and "settlements" are set for negotiation under the Road Map. But the key issue, the elephant in the room, is the requirement for Israel's security. How can Israel put any faith in any government of Palestinian Arabs while they continue teach hate to children, to march in the streets demanding an end to Israel, including urging Saddam Hussein to attack Israel with missiles during the war in Iraq? Opinion polls show most Palestinian Arabs still support homicide bombings and other violence against Israel -- how can Israel trust such a group that marks the introduction of the Road Map with another bombing of civilians?

The U.S. apparently believes that reformist elements in the Palestinian Authority will gain strength as the Road Map progresses and they will be able to restrain the radicals, eventually marginalizing them. Israel will probably go along with this plan, but will try to reserve the right to withdraw cooperation if, as happened during the Oslo "peace process", Palestinian Arab violence escalates. Israel does not want to be committed to a long term result without step-by-step progress from the Palestinian Arabs. The Quartet is impatient with Israel and wants an overall solution to be embraced at the outset. Israel should not be pushed into irreversible concessions before actual changes are seen on the Palestinian Arab side -- promises have been made before and never materialized. The danger for Israel is that the Palestinian Arabs will use the momentum of the Road Map to gain their long sought objective of a political state, without giving up their even longer-term goal of eliminating Israel.